Thursday, March 31, 2011

This Is Charley

Posted by at No comments:

Monday, March 28, 2011

Lost Inventions....

The 18 Most Suppressed Inventions Ever2diggsdiggshare1. The Original Electric Car: Unplugged?
Getty Images
Perhaps the most notorious suppressed invention is the General Motors EV1, subject of the 2006 documentary, Who Killed the Electric Car? The EV1 was the world's first mass-produced electric car, with 800 of them up for lease from GM in the late '90s. GM ended the EV1 line in 1999, stating that consumers weren't happy with the limited driving range of the car's batteries, making it unprofitable for GM to continue production. Many skeptics, however, believe GM killed the EV1 under pressure from oil companies, who stand to lose the most if high-efficiency vehicles conquer the market. It doesn't help that GM had a policy of hunting down and destroying every last EV1, ensuring the technology would stall right then and there.

2. The Death of the American Streetcar
Getty Images
In 1921, if the streetcar industry wasn't actually naming streetcars Desire it was certainly desiring more streetcars. They netted $1 billion, causing General Motors to hemorrhage $65 million in the face of a thriving industry. GM retaliated by buying (or pressuring out of business) hundreds of independent railway companies, boosting the market for gas-guzzling GM busses and cars. The face of American transportation was all cars, cars, cars for the next half-century. While a recent urban movement to rescue mass transit has been underway, it is unlikely we'll ever see streetcars return to their former glory.

3. The 99-MPG Car
Landov
The holy grail of automotive technology is the 99-mpg car. Although the technology has been available for years, automakers have deliberately withheld it from the U.S. market. In 2000, the New York Times reported a little-known fact, at least to most: A diesel-powered dynamo called the Volkswagen Lupo had driven around the world averaging higher than 99 mpg. The Lupo was sold in Europe from 1998 to 2005 but, once again, automakers prevented it from coming to market; they claimed Americans had no interest in small, fuel-efficient cars.

4. Free Energy
Nikola Tesla was more than just the inspiration for a hair metal band, he was also an undisputed genius. In 1899, he figured out a way to bypass fossil-fuel-burning power plants and power lines, proving that "free energy" could be harnessed using ionization in the upper atmosphere to produce electrical vibrations. J.P. Morgan, who had been funding Tesla's research, had a bit of buyer's remorse when he realized that free energy for all wasn't as profitable as, say, actually charging people for every watt of energy use. Morgan then drove another nail in free energy's coffin by chasing away other investors, ensuring Tesla's dream would die.

5. Miracle Cancer Cure
Getty Images
In 2001, Nova Scotian Rick Simpson discovered that a cancerous spot on his skin disappeared within a few days of applying an essential oil made from marijuana. Since then, Simpson and others have treated thousands of cancer patients with incredible success. Researchers in Spain have confirmed that THC, an active compound in marijuana, kills brain-tumor cells in human subjects and shows promise with breast, pancreatic and liver tumors. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration, however, classifies marijuana as a Schedule I drug, meaning that it has no accepted medical use, unlike Schedule II drugs, like cocaine and methamphetamine, which may provide medical benefits. What a buzzkill.

6. Water-Powered Vehicles
Despite how silly it sounds, water-fueled vehicles do exist. The most famous is Stan Meyer's dune buggy, which achieved 100 miles per gallon and might have become more commonplace had Meyer not succumbed to a suspicious brain aneurysm at 57. Insiders have loudly claimed that Meyer was poisoned after he refused to sell his patents or end his research. Fearing a conspiracy, his partners have all but gone underground (or should we say underwater?) and taken his famed water-powered dune buggy with them. We just hope someone finally brings back the amphibious car.

7. Chronovisor
Getty Images
What if you had a device that could see into the future and revisit the past? And what if you didn't need Christopher Lloyd to help you? Father Pellegrino Maria Ernetti, an Italian priest, claimed in the 1960s to have invented what he called a Chronovisor, something that allowed him to witness Christ's crucifixion. The device supposedly enabled viewers to watch any event in human history by tuning in to remnant vibrations that are caused by every action. (His team of researchers and builders included Enrico Fermi, who also worked on the first atomic bomb). On his deathbed, Fermi admitted that he had faked viewings of ancient Greece and Christ's demise, but insisted the Chronovisor, which had by then vanished, still worked. Unsurprisingly, conspiracy theorists say the Vatican is now the likely owner of the original Chronovisor.

8. Rife Devices
American inventor Royal Rife (his real name), in 1934, cured 14 "terminal" cancer patients and hundreds of animal cancers by aiming his "beam ray" at what he called the "cancer virus." So why isn't the Rife Ray in use today? Barry Lynes, in his 1987 book The Cancer Cure That Worked, details how Rife's invention was discredited by Morris Fishbein, the director of the American Medical Association (AMA), after his offers to buy a share of the technology were rebuffed, although this has never been proven and the AMA has denied it. A 1953 U.S. Senate special investigation concluded that Fishbein and the AMA had conspired with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to suppress various alternative cancer treatments that conflicted with the AMA's pre-determined view that "radium, x-ray therapy and surgery are the only recognized treatments for cancer."

9. Cloudbuster
In 1953, when severe drought threatened the blueberry harvest in the state of Maine, Dr. Wilhelm Reich, the inventor of a supposed rainmaking device called the Cloudbuster, and he was contracted to bring rain. The Bangor Daily News reported at the time that within hours of setting up the Cloudbuster, nearly ¼ inch of rain had fallen across the area, despite no precipitation in the forecast. Curiously, it does not seem that Reich attempted this feat again and, in 1954, the government put a stop to his work entirely. After Reich's conviction for selling a phone-booth-sized box that he claimed cured the common cold and impotence, in violation of FDA rules, Reich was sentenced to prison, where he soon died. The court also ordered that Reich's inventions, their parts and any writing about them be destroyed.

10. Overunity Generator
A number of overunity generators, which produce more energy than they take to run, have surfaced in the past century. Ironically, they have been more trouble than they were worth. In nearly all cases, a supposedly working prototype has been unable to make it to commercial production as a result of various corporate or government forces working against the technology. Recently, the Lutec 1000, an "electricity amplifier," has been making steady progress toward a final commercial version. Will consumers soon be able to buy it, or will it too be suppressed?

11. Cold Fushion
Getty Images
Billions of dollars have been spent researching how to create energy using controlled "hot fusion," a risky and unpredictable line of experimentation. Meanwhile, garage scientists and a fringe group of university researchers have been getting closer to harnessing the power of "cold fusion," which is much more stable and controllable, but far less supported by government and foundation money. In 1989, Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons announced that they had made a breakthrough and had observed cold fusion in a glass jar on their lab bench. To say the reaction they received was chilly would be an understatement. CBS's 60 Minutes described how the resulting backlash from the well-funded hot-fusion crowd sent the researchers underground and overseas, where within a few years their funding dried up, forcing them to drop their pursuit of clean energy.

12. Hot Fushion
AFP/Getty Images
Cold fusion isn't the only technology to get buried by hot-headed scientists. When two physicists who were working on the decades-long Tokamak Hot Fusion project at Los Alamos Laboratory stumbled across a cheaper, safer method of creating energy from colliding atoms, they were allegedly forced to repudiate their own discoveries or be fired; the lab feared losing the torrent of government money for Tokamak. In retaliation, the lead researchers created the Focus Fusion Society, which raises private money to fund their research outside of government interference.

13. Magnetofunk and Himmelkompass
Getty Images
Nazi scientists spent much of World War II hidden in a covert military base somewhere in the arctic, creating the Magnetofunk. This alleged invention was designed to deflect the compasses of Allied aircraft that might be searching for Point 103, as the base was known. The aircraft pilots would think they were flying in a straight line, but would gradually curve around Point 103 without ever knowing they were deceived. The Himmelkompass allowed German navigators to orient themselves to the position of the sun, rather than magnetic forces, so they could find Point 103 despite the effects of the Magnetofunk. According to Wilhelm Landig, a former SS officer, these two devices were closely guarded secrets of the Third Reich. So closely guarded were they that neither device apparently survived the collapse of Hitler's Germany, although the real tragedy is that no one has ever named their band Magnetofunk.

14. A Safer Cigarette?
Getty Images
In the 1960s, the Liggett & Myers tobacco company created a product called the XA, a cigarette in which most of the stick's carcinogens had been eliminated. Dr. James Mold, Liggett's Research Director, reported in court documents in the case of "The City and County of San Francisco vs. Phillip Morris, Inc.," that Phillip Morris threatened to "clobber" Liggett if they did not adhere to an industry agreement never to reveal information about the negative health effects of smoking. By advertising a "safer" alternative, they would be admitting the dangers of tobacco use. The lawsuit was dismissed on a technicality and Phillip Morris never addressed the accusations. Despite their own scientists' publication of research that showed less cancer in mice exposed to smoke from the XA, Liggett & Myers issued a press released denying evidence of cancer in humans as a result of tobacco use, and the XA never saw the light of day.

15. TENS
Getty Images
The Transcutaneous Electronic Nerve Stimulation (TENS) device was created to alleviate pain impulses from the body without the use of drugs. In 1974, Johnson & Johnson bought StimTech, one of the first companies to sell the machine, and proceeded to starve the TENS division of money, causing it to flounder. StimTech sued, alleging that Johnson & Johnson purposely stifled the TENS technology to protect sales of its flagship drug, Tylenol. Johnson & Johnson responded that the device never performed as well as was claimed and that it was not profitable. StimTech's founders won $170 Million, although the ruling was appealed and overturned on a technicality. The court's finding that the corporation suppressed the TENS device was never overturned.

16. The Phoebus Cartel
Getty Images
Phillips, GE and Osram engaged in a conspiracy from 1924 to 1939 with the goal of controlling the fledgling light-bulb industry, according to a report published in Time magazine six years later. The alleged cartel set prices and suppressed competing technologies that would have produced longer-lasting and more efficient light bulbs. By the time the cabal dissolved, the industry-standard incandescent bulb was established as the dominant source of artificial light across Europe and North America. Not until the late 1990s did compact fluorescent bulbs begin to edge into the worldwide lighting market as an alternative.

17. The Coral Castle
Getty Images
How did Ed Leedskalnin build the massive Coral Castle in Homestead, Florida, out of giant chunks of coral weighing up to 30 tons each with no heavy equipment and no outside help? Theories abound, including anti-gravity devices, magnetic resonance and alien technology, but the answer may never be known. Leedskalnin died in 1951 without any written plans or clues as to his techniques. The centerpiece of the castle, which is now a museum open to the public, is a nine-ton gate that used to move with light pressure from one finger. After the gate's bearings wore out in the 1980s, a crew of five took more than two weeks to fix it, although they never did get it to work as effortlessly as Leedskalnin's original masterpiece.

18. Hemp Bio-fuel
Getty Images
The father of our country, George Washington, who is rumored to have said "I cannot tell a lie," was a proud supporter of the hemp seed. Of course, the only thing more suppressed in this country than an honest politician is hemp, which is often mistakenly for marijuana and therefore unfairly maligned. Governmental roadblocks, meanwhile, prevent hemp from becoming the leader in extracting ethanol, allowing environmentally damaging sources like corn to take over the ethanol industry. Despite the fact that it requires fewer chemicals, less water and less processing to do the same job, hemp has never caught on. Experts also lay the blame at the feet of (who else?) Presidential candidates, who kiss up to Iowa corn growers for votes.
Posted by at No comments:

Friday, March 25, 2011

Every one has seen the sailor kiss the woman in NYC, but have you seen this?

VJ Day, Honolulu Hawaii, August 14, 1945 from Richard Sullivan on Vimeo.

Posted by at No comments:

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

MOM TAUGHT ME....

I Owe My Mother;



1. My mother taught me TO APPRECIATE A JOB WELL DONE .
"If you're going to kill each other, do it outside.. I just finished cleaning."

2. My mother taught me RELIGION.
"You better pray that will come out of the carpet."

3. My mother taught me about TIME TRAVEL.
"If you don't straighten up, I'm going to knock you into the middle of next week!"

4. My mother taught me LOGIC.
" Because I said so, that's why."

5. My mother taught me MORE LOGIC .
"If you fall out of that swing and break your neck, you're not going to the store with me."

6. My mother taught me FORESIGHT.
"Make sure you wear clean underwear, in case you're in an accident."

7. My mother taught me IRONY.
"Keep crying, and I'll give you something to cry about."

8. My mother taught me about the science of OSMOSIS .
"Shut your mouth and eat your supper."

9. My mother taught me about CONTORTIONISM.
"Will you look at that dirt on the back of your neck!"

10. My mother taught me about STAMINA .
"You'll sit there until all that spinach is gone."

11. My mother taught me about WEATHER.
"This room of yours looks as if a tornado went through it."

12. My mother taught me about HYPOCRISY.
"If I told you once, I've told you a million times. Don't exaggerate!"

13. My mother taught me the CIRCLE OF LIFE.
"I brought you into this world, and I can take you out.."

14. My mother taught me about BEHAVIOR MODIFICATION .
"Stop acting like your father!"

15. My mother taught me about ENVY.
"There are millions of less fortunate children in this world who don't have wonderful parents like you do."

16. My mother taught me about ANTICIPATION.
"Just wait until we get home."

17. My mother taught me about RECEIVING .
"You are going to get it when your father gets home!"

18. My mother taught me MEDICAL SCIENCE.
"If you don't stop crossing your eyes, they are going to get stuck that way."

19. My mother taught me ESP.
"Put your sweater on; don't you think I know when you are cold?"

20. My mother taught me HUMOR.
"When that lawn mower cuts off your toes, don't come running to me."

21. My mother taught me HOW TO BECOME AN ADULT .
"If you don't eat your vegetables, you'll never grow up."

22. My mother taught me GENETICS.
"You're just like your father."

23. My mother taught me about my ROOTS.
"Shut that door behind you. Do you think you were born in a barn?"

24. My mother taught me WISDOM.
"When you get to be my age, you'll understand."

And my favorite:

25. My mother taught me about JUSTICE .
"One day you'll have kids, and I hope they turn out just like you!"
Posted by at No comments:
Labels:

Friday, March 18, 2011

Investing In Japan

http://moneymorning.com/
Global Investment News
Fri, 18 Mar 2011 13:28:12
-

That trembler, coupled with the devastating tsunami that followed, ignited a flurry of fears and caused a two-day sell-off that sent Japanese stocks down 17%. The sell-off wiped out more than $650 billion in shareholder wealth.
< id="cfct-build-40371" class="cfct-build">< id="cfct-row-8205b2f5da718f0a9c5a2f1be06326be" class="cfct-row cfct-row-a">< class="cfct-row-inner">< id="cfct-block-a82cd18cbd61f4afb9690f57958f1bb1" class="cfct-block block-0 cfct-block-abc">
< class="cfct-module cfct-html ">
With a magnitude of 9.0, the March 11 earthquake in Japan was the worst in that country's 300-year history and was the fifth-worst the world has ever seen.


That trembler, coupled with the devastating tsunami that followed, ignited a flurry of fears and caused a two-day sell-off that sent Japanese stocks down 17%. The sell-off wiped out more than $650 billion in shareholder wealth.

< class="cfct-row-inner">< id="cfct-block-25e129c2381fb95417d5fd5418bb7a75" class="cfct-block block-0 cfct-block-abc">< class="cfct-module mm-toolbar-module ">< class="post-further">< class="post-further-content clearfix">< class="grid-4 alpha">
< class="cf_related_posts">
related Stories





  • Gold Will Continue to Shine Amid Market Uncertainty





  • Disaster in Japan: How Bad Will it Get?






Related Reports< class="grid-4">
< class="cf_related_posts">



  • You Can Give Up Your Paycheck, Too…





  • U.S. Weapon Sales to the Middle East: Will Egypt End the "Obama Arms Bazaar?"









Keynesians, with whom I normally disagree, said the required reconstruction work would be financially beneficial for Japan.


From an economic standpoint, that's total nonsense: It contradicts the "Bastiat broken windows paradox," as I will explain. But for investors, Keynes might as well have been right - meaning the Japanese stock market is actually quite attractive.


< id="cfct-row-f4536b79dc9eaa9df4ee18a5ccbe289c" class="cfct-row cfct-row-float-b">< id="cfct-block-ed635909491a816ae2f4b49cb112f765" class="cfct-block-float-ab">< class="cfct-module cfct-html ">

Why Japan is a "Buy"



The French free-market economist Frederic Bastiat (1801-50) predated John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) by almost 100 years, yet he had elegant disproof of one of Keynes' central contentions - that public spending, no matter how useless, helped an economy.



Bastiat postulated a village in which there were unemployed glaziers. Those glaziers could be put to employment if they employed the local youths to break all the village's windows. The glaziers would then get work.






If we consider Keynes' theory, the glaziers would be richer. But Bastiat would tell us that, in reality, window-breaking would impoverish the non-glazier villagers, who would be forced to pay for window repairs instead of buying other things that they wanted or needed (which would create jobs elsewhere) or saving the money (which would increase the village's stock of capital, improving its living standards in future years).


In short, the village would be impoverished - not enriched - by the window breaking.


The same is true in Japan, where the earthquake's damage has made the country poorer, not richer. This is obvious to ordinary people, but not, apparently to economists or to several bank analysts, who have produced pieces rejoicing on the additional gross domestic product (GDP) that would be created.





That's a true statement, as far as it goes: Additional GDP would be created by the construction work, but that's a flaw in the GDP statistic, which does not recognize the negative output produced by the earthquake's damage.


On the economic argument, I have to say that Bastiat is the victor.


When we talk about investors, however, Keynes might also be right.


You see, the list of those hurt financially by the earthquake include the Japanese government (so don't buy Japan's government bonds), insurance companies (who will make up their losses through higher future premiums) and the unfortunate Japanese people themselves. The financial beneficiaries, on the other hand, will be construction companies (mostly quoted on the Tokyo Stock Exchange), and housing companies (ditto) together with capital equipment manufacturers (ditto II.)


Of course, even among listed companies, there will be some losers. Tokyo Electric Power Co. (PINK ADR: TKECY), or TEPCO, the unfortunate owner of the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station, will lose a functional power plant that may not have been fully insured, and will suffer endless clean-up costs and compensation claims. Clearly not a "Buy."


Then there are Bastiat's "losers," particularly the manufacturers of luxury goods, which will not sell as much in Japan because consumers will have to spend money on rebuilding. Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) has postponed the March 25 launch of the iPad 2 in Japan, while stocks in the likes of LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (PINK ADR: LVMUY) and Hermes International SA (PINK: HESAF) have been badly hit.


In any case, most of Japan's equity value is in the big exporters, such as Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE ADR: TM) and Sony Corp. (NYSE ADR: SNE). These companies have been forced to close factories and other operations for a few days. But their international sales have been unaffected and they should be able to make up production quickly - from factories outside Japan, if necessary.


The only proviso here is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) must prevent the Japanese yen from rising too far (which is what the currency did following the Kobe earthquake in 1995) since a super-strong yen would choke off exporter profitability.


Immediately after last Friday's earthquake, however, the BOJ immediately bought another $180 billion of bonds in its own "quantitative-easing" move, so it looks like it got the message from the export community.


That brings us to the stock market itself.


Four Firms That Figure to Gain



Since achieving its post-financial-crisis bear-market lows in March 2009, the U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index is up 86%. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is up only 27% during the same period. The S&P is currently trading at about 16 times earnings, while the Nikkei is carrying a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.2.


Clearly, there's room for growth in select Japanese stocks.


To play the Japanese market overall, there's the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSE: EWJ). Among the exporters, Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE ADR: TM) and Sony Corp. (NYSE ADR: SNE) will do fine.


Kubota Corp. (NYSE ADR: KUB) is a major Japanese maker of construction equipment, pipe-related products and components for water and other environmental systems - all things that figure to be in big demand.


Finally, you should look at Daiwa House Industry Co. Ltd. (Pink Sheets ADR: DWAHY), one of Japanese largest housing manufacturers. Like Kubota, Daiwa House has a product that figures to experience a lot of demand.


Bastiat was right, economically; but if we ignore him, we can see why Japan is a "Buy."


< class="editors-note">[Editor's Note: There's a segment of the stock market whose investment returns are five times that of the typical stock.


But here's the problem: Only 1% of investors know about it.


Fortunately, Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson is among that 1%. The 37 years he spent as an international merchant banker gave him that knowledge, and that insight.


Now you can access that insight.


With Hutchinson's The Merchant Banker Alert advisory service, you can crack this "rich-man's market," discover the identities of those stocks - and reap those massive gains yourself.


Click here for a report that shows you how to get started.]
News and Related Story s:







]]>

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/18/why-japan-is-a-buy/feed/
0

-

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/18/gold-will-continue-to-shine-amid-market-uncertainty/
http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/18/gold-will-continue-to-shine-amid-market-uncertainty/#comments
Fri, 18 Mar 2011 10:00:33 +0000
Kerri Shannon
-
-

http://moneymorning.com/?p=40357
-
- <>

-
- < id="cfct-build-40357" class="cfct-build">

< id="cfct-row-149f4cdd8ddcd3f8d1f56e032812c3d7" class="cfct-row cfct-row-a">
< class="cfct-row-inner">< id="cfct-block-c4e8ff33e121250c526019751372bac0" class="cfct-block block-0 cfct-block-abc">
< class="cfct-module cfct-html ">
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.5% in February from the month before, pushed higher by food and energy costs. The price index for all items climbed 2.1% over the past year.


But many think government-reported inflation numbers don't present an accurate price picture. Some economists estimate the true rate of inflation is closer to 8% or 9%. And those numbers could rise higher as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to pump billions of dollars into the financial system.


Inflation, coupled with political turmoil in the Middle East, has pushed many investors out of stocks and into commodities. Gold rose to a record $1,445.70 an ounce on March 7. Market uncertainty from the Japan disaster pushed the metal down to $1,380.70 on March 15, but it gained again this week to hover around $1,400 an ounce.


id="cfct-row-07835332972d4a2f7a0e5c9c86d48ded" class="cfct-row cfct-row-a">
< class="cfct-row-inner">< id="cfct-block-e067251473c455c9e825bd80b5bdcbeb" class="cfct-block block-0 cfct-block-abc">
< class="cfct-module mm-toolbar-module ">

< class="post-further">
< class="post-further-header">


  • About the Author

  • Syndicate













Related Stories




  • Why Japan is a "Buy"






  • Disaster in Japan: How Bad Will it Get?












Related Reports




  • You Can Give Up Your Paycheck, Too…






  • U.S. Weapon Sales to the Middle East: Will Egypt End the "Obama Arms Bazaar?"










Latest Comment

There are no comments on this post. Be the first to comment!…






















Fears of market volatility and a hunt for safe investments prompted many readers to reevaluate gold's use as a hedge against inflation, as the following reader question addresses.


Will gold rise in value even more than predicted if inflation rises a lot in 2011 and the following years? Will it continue to provide a good hedge?


- Terry C.


A dramatic increase in inflation this year could push gold prices even higher than predicted as more investors seek safe haven investments. Many predict gold will continue to climb and reach $2,000 an ounce, or higher.


"I'm still looking for gold to reach $2,500 an ounce - but after a brief pullback," Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald said last month. "Not only are many people beginning to seriously accumulate the yellow metal, but so are many countries, as one of the truly viable alternatives to traditional currencies and a means of diversifying their sovereign debt risk."


China is one of the countries flocking to gold. The country's inflation risk pushed its investors into a gold buying spree last year. Chinese demand for gold bars and coins reached 180 tons in 2010, up a whopping 70% from 2009, Albert Cheng, the World Gold Council's managing director for the Far East, said at a news conference last month.


Now Japan's economy will contribute to the gold rush. In the wake of Japan's disaster, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will pump more money into the financial system. The central bank poured a record $183.17 billion (15 trillion yen) into money markets Monday and doubled the size of its asset-purchase program to ease liquidity worries. The money inflows will prompt more investors to seek gold investing to protect their wealth.


The U.S. dollar's continued fall will also support gold prices as investors protect against a weak currency.





These gold price catalysts will continue to make the metal an attractive inflation hedge in 2011, although it may not see the same 30% price jump it had in 2010. The yellow metal struggled in January and concerned investors claimed its hot streak was slowing down. And even though gold gained this week, it's not surging as high as expected during times of uncertainty as many investors are fleeing the markets altogether.


"I think the market seems to be caught a little bit long gold to the upside," Erik Wytenus, head of foreign exchange and commodities at JPMorgan Private Bank, told CNBC. "What we seem to be experiencing in broad risk markets is just a bit of liquidation, just a bit of a lightening up of really all positions across the board. So even though investors and market participants like to own gold in times of market turmoil, at this time it just seems to be a bit of a taking of risk off across the board, be it equities, commodities, high-yielding currencies, really anything at all during this period of extreme uncertainty."


But sitting on the sidelines during times of market volatility can mean missing out on huge gains. Investors nervous about putting all their money in gold can diversify their metals holdings with silver. Silver rose 83% in 2010 and is up about 16% so far this year.


Some analysts call silver an even better investment than gold right now - and Money Morning Contributing Editor Shah Gilani agrees.


"I think gold has not really performed as well as I would've expected it to, given some of the crises in the Middle East...but silver has been exceptional," Gilani said on a visit earlier this month to FoxBusiness' "Varney & Co." program. "Industrial use is tremendous for silver...it is the ultimate precious industrial metal. Also, we've got [exchange-traded fund] phenomenon. As ETFs continue to buy as investors come into them, they're taking supply off of the market. That's going to continue a nice cycle for silver to go higher."


(**) Money Morning editors reserve the right to edit responses for grammar, length and clarity when posting on our Website. Please include your name and hometown with your email.


News and Related Story :






]]>

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/18/gold-will-continue-to-shine-amid-market-uncertainty/feed/
0

-

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/18/disaster-in-japan-how-bad-will-it-get/
http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/18/disaster-in-japan-how-bad-will-it-get/#comments
Fri, 18 Mar 2011 10:00:18 +0000
Guest Editorial
-
-

http://moneymorning.com/?p=40384
-
- Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald has spent almost every summer for the past two decades at his family home in Kyoto - which is why he knows Japan in a way that few other U.S. traders could ever hope to.


As part of Money Morning's continued coverage of the disaster in Japan, Fitz-Gerald is sharing those insights with readers. Here are the highlights of a question-and-answer session we held with Fitz-Gerald late yesterday ( Thursday).



Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald has spent almost every summer for the past two decades at his family home in Kyoto - which is why he knows Japan in a way that few other U.S. traders could ever hope to.


As part of Money Morning's continued coverage of the disaster in Japan, Fitz-Gerald is sharing those insights with readers. Here are the highlights of a question-and-answer session we held with Fitz-Gerald late yesterday ( Thursday).











  • related Stories




  • Why Japan is a "Buy"






  • Gold Will Continue to Shine Amid Market Uncertainty












Related Reports




  • You Can Give Up Your Paycheck, Too…






  • U.S. Weapon Sales to the Middle East: Will Egypt End the "Obama Arms Bazaar?"










Latest Comment

There are no comments on this post. Be the first to comment!…

















Money Morning (Q): Keith, with all the concerns about government-debt defaults in Europe, uprisings in the Middle East, and the emerging "deadbeat states" crisis here in the United States, there was already enough "bad news" to inspire considerable worry about the ongoing global recovery. And then comes along the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan. Just from an economic standpoint - and by no means are we forgetting about the tragic side of this - how much will the quake impact the world's economy?


Keith Fitz-Gerald: Despite the fact that Japan's economy is the third-largest (following the United States and China), it hasn't been a global-economy driver for years. To give you an idea, consider the fact that Japan represented about 18% of the world's gross domestic product (GDP) as recently as 1995. As of 2010, that had fallen to only 9%. Initially, I think that translates into a drop of just 0.1% to 0.3% in the global- growth estimates of 4% for 2011.



Longer- term, however, this crisis appears to be worsening by the minute. I am particularly worried about all the stimulus that is going to be required to absorb the shock in many co untries - not just Japan . I think the world's central bankers have been tremendously misguided and overly optimistic about their stimulus initiatives. What's more, the global-growth projects may not be a solid as everybody thinks.




(Q): This earthquake is so much worse than the Kobe earthquake (also known as the Great Hanshin earthquake) of 1995. With the current disaster in Japan, how will the country's industrial base cope?


Fitz-Gerald: The specifics remain to be seen. But remember this: Japan has dealt with earthquakes for thousands of years; its culture is prepared - as no other in the world - to cope with this on a variety of levels. To put things into context, the area affected by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami is about half of the geographic area affected by the 1995 Kobe quake. People thought it would take a decade or more to bounce back from that disaster ... yet four out of five shops were open again a mere 18 months after the quake. What stands in stark contrast, though, is that the devastation this time around is much more concentrated. And with the nuclear threat now looming, this situation is potentially a whole lot worse.


(Q): Will this affect U.S. exports? And if it does, how big will that effect be?



Fitz-Gerald: It's t oo early to tell. Japan accounts for about 10% of U.S. exports and rebuilding efforts will likely require fresh materials in all sectors. So there may actually be an uptick in U.S. exports to Japan into 2012.



(Q): What about the stuff we buy from Japan?


Fitz-Gerald: Roughly 30% of what we purchase from Japan consists of cars and car parts, so if there's an impact it's likely to be felt most strongly in the auto sector. Right now, Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE ADR: TM), Nissan Motor Co. (PINK ADR: NSANY) and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: HMC) have more than 20 factories and sub-factories that are shut down. Those shutdowns were ordered, in part, to assess damage while part of that is the result of rolling power outages that may potentially affect Japanese production for months.


(Q): What about the nukes?


Fitz-Gerald: If there's a game-changer, this is obviously it. The information I am getting suggests that the situation is far more dangerous than the Japanese government is letting on. If this is true, then that government is following the same tired script, which includes ‘maintaining face' - instead of focusing on the correct objectives, such as maximizing public safety and maintaining financial surety. The same can be said of Tokyo Electric Power Co. (PINK ADR: TKECY), or TEPCO ( which has a long history of providing incomplete, misleading and falsified records, including those related to earlier nuclear leaks that date all the way back to the early 1980s). I hope I am wrong. But I think that it's significant that the U.S. embassy has warned U.S. nationals who are situated within 50 miles of the troubled power plant to evacuate, and that the embassy is now laying in flights to get people out. The EU International Atomic Energy Agency director has expressed similar concerns. Tokyo is only 125 miles away, which makes this a true nightmare in the making.


(Q): Speaking from a purely financial standpoint ... and not ignoring the human toll in any way ... what business sectors - and what types of companies - figure to be affected by this growing disaster, and in what way?


Fitz-Gerald: As you say, speaking from a purely financial standpoint, I see some very specific effects. Steel, coal and alternative-energy companies are likely to benefit from the massive reconstruction spending. The same is true of oil, diesel and heavy-equipment makers. Ironically, because of the production problems I just mentioned, U.S. auto parts makers can step in to fill any production gaps. In Asia, I'm expecting short-term memory-chip shortages; Japan provides a huge number of short-term memory chips for such high-volume products as wireless phones and Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPads. Already, Chinese companies are seeking alternative suppliers. Producers from both South Korea and Taiwan may step in to fill the gap.


(Q): Could it get any worse?


Fitz-Gerald: Unfortunately, yes. Mt Fuji - the large snow-capped mountain typically associated with Japan in tourist brochures and news footage - is experiencing tremblers. The most recent was a 6.0-magnitude quake on its slopes in the Shizuoka area. Fujiyama, or Fuji-san as it's known to the Japanese, is a volcano that's been dormant for 300 years, and that's widely considered overdue for an eruption. And experts note that earthquakes have triggered such activity in Japan's past. Should this happen now, the human toll would be beyond comprehension. And it would likely send markets worldwide into complete panic. Despite the selling pressure of the past few days, this is something we haven't seen, yet.



(Q): Japanese debt could top a quadrillion yen. Is Japan bankrupt?


Fitz-Gerald: Yes, but in the same way our country is "bankrupt." As long as the central bankers can maintain the illusion that they are in control with their injections and other fiscal chicanery, the economy can function. But once people realize just how bad this actually is and what a house of cards they've built, I bel ieve Japan's bankruptcy is all but certain. It's worth noting, though, that this may take years and that the more than $200 billion in recovery spending now being contemplated will push the financial day of reckoning farther into the future. It's hard to imagine, but Japan could turn into a modern-day Argentina if it has to default the way that nation did decades ago. As you know, I feel the same way about the United States, which continues to engage in well- intentioned - though thoroughly misguided - fiscal folly.



(Q): The Japanese markets rebounded strongly yesterday (Wednesday). What's your take?


Fitz-Gerald: I think this is premature. Having missed the boat on the historic rebound that U.S. stocks have enjoyed from the March 9, 2009 bear-market lows caused by the global financial crisis, many investors see this as a proverbial "second chance." So they're going bargain hunting and making contrarian plays of their own. I think they're more likely to be catching falling knives. I expect Japanese stocks to lose about 25% of their value in the next six months as earnings revisions based on current production shutdowns, the nuclear impact and reconstruction are factored in. Remember, Japan was struggling before the earthquake and tsunami to produce even 1% growth. Now - and literally overnight - the projections have gone from 1% growth to a 4% contraction. That's a 5% swing that will take markets months to digest. And the additional negative sentiment that results from the string of earnings downgrades that we can expect in the months ahead will serve to reinforce the uncertainty that's grown out of the current disaster.


(Q): What about our own markets?



Fitz-Gerald: I'm expecting a bounce in the next day or two. It's worth noting that more than 50% of stocks have reached 20-day lows, which suggests (technically speaking) the potential for a bounce. However, with a situation that's threatening to spiral out of control - as this one is - I think that any such move on the part of investors would be premature.

In fact, absent a move by Japan's leaders to provide that country and the rest of the world with a candid and truthful assessment of the state of the nuclear-power plant problem there, traders will probably continue to head for the sidelines. And they'll stay there until we all have a better understanding of what's actually happening in Japan.

If you're an investor - no matter where you live, or what markets you trade - the best advice I can give you is to maintain perspective and mind your "protective stops."




[Editor's Note: Earthquakes and nuclear meltdowns in Japan, soaring food-and-energy prices throughout the Western world, and a numbing federal debt load here in the United States ... it's enough to make the typical investor give up in despair.



Don't make that mistake.



There is a way for you to double your money in the next 12 months - and you don't have to hire a Swiss banker to do it. All you need is the right blend of high-yielding investments. To find out all about those investments, please click here.]



News and Related Story :









]]>

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/18/disaster-in-japan-how-bad-will-it-get/feed/
0

-

<>http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/japan-update-how-to-proceed-in-the-wake-of-japans-tragedy/
http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/japan-update-how-to-proceed-in-the-wake-of-japans-tragedy/#comments
Thu, 17 Mar 2011 17:48:18 +0000
Guest Editorial
-
-

-
-

- <[ Japan's earthquake-ignited nuclear crisis has gone from bad to worse. Radiation levels at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant rose today (Thursday) as attempts to cool the stricken reactor with high-pressure hoses failed. The No. 3 reactor's spent fuel rod pool is overheating and could release dangerous amounts of radiation into the atmosphere. Sadly, the nation's death toll already has climbed above 5,300, with many more missing or in danger. And analysts now estimate that the direct monetary costs from Friday's 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami will range from $160billion to $200billion. Indeed, the early reports forecast that the disaster could trim the output of Japan's $5.39 trillion economy by half a percentage point - which would add another $25 billion to that tab.



]]>

-
- <





Japan's earthquake-ignited nuclear crisis has gone from bad to worse.


Radiation levels at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant rose today (Thursday) as attempts to cool the stricken reactor with high-pressure hoses failed. The No. 3 reactor's spent fuel rod pool is overheating and could release dangerous amounts of radiation into the atmosphere.


Sadly, the nation's death toll already has climbed above 5,300, with many more missing or in danger. And analysts now estimate that the direct monetary costs from Friday's 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami will range from $160billion to $200billion.


Indeed, the early reports forecast that the disaster could trim the output of Japan's $5.39 trillion economy by half a percentage point - which would add another $25 billion to that tab.














  • About the Author

  • Syndicate













Related Stories





  • Why Japan is a "Buy"





  • Gold Will Continue to Shine Amid Market Uncertainty












Related Reports




  • You Can Give Up Your Paycheck, Too…




  • The direct impact on the U.S. economy isn't expected to be large at this point, but there will be problems. Already, U.S.-based insurers with large exposures to Japan are "pre-announcing" losses and face credit-rating downgrades. And some major companies - such as International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) - are also finding themselves scrutinized. (IBM derives roughly 11% of its revenue from Japan, according to a MarketWatch.com report).


    The Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were both higher today after a two-day sell off that racked investors. The Dow was up 160 points, or 1.39% in morning trading and the S&P was up 20.62 points, or 1.64%


    So against such a backdrop of significant uncertainty, with the situation in Japan seeming to change from one hour to the next, what's an investor to do? To help you answer that question, the Money Morning news staff has assembled this special report, which contains the best analyses and investment reports that we've put together since this crisis began, and are providing them for you here - all in one place.


    In addition to the news/analysis stories that we've published, our experts also have put together several investing reports -- and even a video -- that we hope will help you make important decisions about your holdings.

    To read our "Special Report: How to Invest in the Wake of the Japan Disaster," please read on:



  • Currency Moves: Money Morning's Keith Fitz-Gerald is a top trader. But the fact that he and his family have spent parts of the past 20 summers living in Japan has provided Fitz-Gerald with a detailed understanding of Asia that few other traders possess. Investors who fail to understand how currency shifts in the wake of the Japan disaster could incur major losses. To avoid those losses, read Fitz-Gerald's report by clicking here.

  • Investing Amid Uncertainty: Also, as a guest on FoxBusiness' "Varney & Co." and "Bulls & Bears" programs, Fitz-Gerald addressed Japan's soaring debt issues in light of this disaster. He also told investors what opportunities would arise from this crisis. To watch video of those appearances, please click here.

  • A Good Defense: In the aftermath of a disaster as bad as the one in Japan, a defensive-investing posture makes sense. But here's the surprise: With a good defensive-investing strategy, you can still make money. To find out about such a strategy - including several specific investment recommendations - please click here.

  • A Powerful Debate: Three decades have passed since the accident at Pennsylvania's Three Mile Island nuclear power plant seemed to doom commercial nuclear power - in the United States as well as overseas. In the last few years, however, worries about global-warming and global oil supplies and costs appeared to be giving commercial nuclear new life. Have the nuclear power plant accidents in Japan doomed nuclear power for good? Check out Money Morning Associate Editor David Zeiler's report by clicking here.

  • A View of U.S. Stocks: In the late 1980s, in Japan's halcyon days as the world's top economic superpower, a market adage held that "When Tokyo sneezes, Wall Street catches a cold." In the wake of last week's earthquake and tsunami, and the nuclear power plant accidents that have followed, that may be true again. In this Money Morning video, Contributing Editor Shah Gilani, a retired hedge fund manager, tells FoxBusiness News anchor Stuart Varney how Japan's problems could affect U.S. stocks. To view that video, please click here.

  • Are You Worried? First it was the financial crisis. Then the recession. Now the Middle East and the disaster in Japan have been mixed into a stew of uncertainty that's already been seasoned by high unemployment and spikes in food and energy prices. But there are other worries, too. In her weekly poll of readers, Money Morning Associate Editor Kerri Shannon is asking readers to detail their five biggest worries. To read more about our survey, or even to take part, please click here.

  • Export Woes: The nuclear power plant problems have garnered the lion's share of the financial media's attention in recent days. But the after-effects of the earthquake and tsunami that set the nuclear disaster in motion must still be reckoned with. As the world's No. 3 economy and a major exporter, Japan is the main source for such items as semiconductors, a key building block for many of the world's most modern products. To see how the Japan disaster could damage world trade, please click here.

  • Aftershock Aftermath: The 9.0 magnitude earthquake and resulting tsunami that hit northeastern Japan Friday had an immediate impact on financial markets all over the world. However, the effects of the damage and rebuilding will reverberate through the Japanese economy for months, if not years. To understand the scope of that rebuilding, please click here.



[Editor's Note: Earthquakes and nuclear meltdowns in Japan, soaring food-and-energy prices, a numbing federal debt load and savings-account rates that make your mattress an alluring place to stuff your money ... well, that's almost enough to make the typical investor surrender.



Almost.



There is a way for you to double your money in the next 12 months - and you don't have to hire a Swiss banker to do it. All you need is the right blend of high-yielding investments. You can find out the details by clicking here. Or you can sign up for The Money Map Report, which each month delivers the most pressing profit opportunities available.]



News and Related Story :








]]>

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/japan-update-how-to-proceed-in-the-wake-of-japans-tragedy/feed/
2

-

<>http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/money-mornings-fitz-gerald-on-global-implications-of-japan-disaster/
http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/money-mornings-fitz-gerald-on-global-implications-of-japan-disaster/#comments
Thu, 17 Mar 2011 10:00:52 +0000
Money Morning Staff
-
-

-
-

http://moneymorning.com/?p=40267
-
-

-
- <





Fears of a nuclear catastrophe in Japan caused the Nikkei 225 Index to suffer its worst two-day losses in 25 years this week, but stocks rallied back 5.7% today (Wednesday). The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 242 points today to close at 11,613.30.


Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald joined FoxBusiness' "Bulls & Bears" program Tuesday evening to discuss what the global market moves mean for investors, and if there are any bright spots in this period of market gloom.


"This crisis does truly have global implications, but from crisis comes opportunity," Fitz-Gerald said.


Click here to see what those opportunities are.


Fitz-Gerald also appeared on FoxBusiness' "Varney & Co." Wednesday morning and tackled host Stuart Varney's question of the day: Is Japan like Greece?



Fitz-Gerald compares the two countries' economies and addresses what Japan will do facing hundreds of trillions of yen in debt.


To watch that video, please click here.


News and Related Story :





















]]>

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/money-mornings-fitz-gerald-on-global-implications-of-japan-disaster/feed/
0

-

<>http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/tips-for-hedging-silver/
http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/tips-for-hedging-silver/#comments
Thu, 17 Mar 2011 10:00:44 +0000
Larry D. Spears
-
-

http://moneymorning.com/?p=40251
-
- < href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/futurescontract.asp" target="_blank">futures contract calling for May 2011 delivery - traded on the Comex division of Chicago's CME Group Inc. (Nasdaq: CME) - has risen more than four times as much as gold over the past seven months.



]]>

-
- <





Gold has gotten a lot of attention recently, as the yellow metal earlier this month rose to yet another record high. However, gold's little brother - silver - shouldn't be forgotten.


Although gold has garnered most of the headlines - thanks primarily to its historic role as a hedge against both inflation and the political turmoil - silver has actually turned in a far more impressive performance since mid-2010.


In fact, the silver futures contract calling for May 2011 delivery - traded on the Comex division of Chicago's CME Group Inc. (Nasdaq: CME) - has risen more than four times as much as gold over the past seven months.














  • About the Author

  • Syndicate













Related Stories




  • Why Japan is a "Buy"





  • Gold Will Continue to Shine Amid Market Uncertainty













Related Reports





  • You Can Give Up Your Paycheck, Too…





  • U.S. Weapon Sales to the Middle East: Will Egypt End the "Obama Arms Bazaar?"










Latest Comment

Coins last !!!…

















To be precise, after closing at $18.117 per ounce on July 30, 2010, the May future (SIK11) climbed steadily to $34.780 an ounce at the close of trading on Tuesday, March 1, a gain of $16.663 an ounce, or 91.97%.


Since each Comex silver futures contract represents 5,000 ounces of silver - meaning each one-cent move in the price is worth $50 - that translates to a profit of $83,315.


Again, that's in just seven months.


By contrast, April Comex gold futures (GCJ11) rose just 20.59% over the same period - climbing from $1,186.80 an ounce at the end of July 2010 to a record-high $1,432.20 per ounce at the close on March 1. On the 100-ounce futures contract, that increase of $245.40 an ounce translates to a profit of $24,540 - impressive, but far short of the numbers posted by silver.


So, if you were one of the investors astute enough to catch the full ride in silver - or if you're just sitting on a sizeable gain in the white metal - what should you do now?


Well, it may be time to start protecting your profits by hedging against a potential decline.


Hedging Silver



Given the size of silver's advance, a pullback seems inevitable - despite the Middle East unrest and related specter of inflation to rising prices for oil and other commodities.


There are three ways to hedge against a potential decline.


The first and most obvious choice ­- if you hold silver futures or a sizable quantity of physical silver - would be to use the same strategy detailed in our earlier story on hedging gold profits. In other words, you can "insure" your gains by purchasing one at-the-money put option for each "long" silver futures contract you hold (or for the equivalent amount of silver coins or bullion).


The only problem with this approach is that the dramatic rise in silver prices has caused an equally sharp jump in silver option premiums. For example, based on the March 1 closing price of $34.780 for the May silver future, the price for the at-the-money May $35.00 Comex silver put option settled at $2.236 per ounce - or $11,180 for the full 5,000-ounce contract.


That's a hefty premium to pay for an insurance policy that will only last about a month and a half (the May 2011 silver options expire on Tuesday, April 26) - and it doesn't even provide that much protection. To wit, the price of the May future would have to fall to $32.764 (the $35.00 strike price minus the $2.236 option premium = $32.764) before the insurance would even kick in, which would cost you $10,080 of your current profits.


That's not the most attractive scenario at this stage of the game - especially for a futures position, where a stop-loss order would likely work just as well.


The second way to hedge against a decline in silver would be to use the out-of-the-money May $34.00 put, which was priced at $1.696 per ounce ($8,480) at the close of March 1. With that option, the insurance would kick in at a futures price of $32.304, meaning you'd give back $12,380 in profits before you gained any offsetting protection.


Of course, that's not much better than our first option.


Fortunately, there's a third way to structure an option hedge that's perfect for a situation like this. It uses three options instead of just one - and, in most cases, it can be positioned at little or no net cost.


I'm talking about a "Three Legged Options Hedge."


The Best Way to "Insure" Your Silver Gains



Let's review the circumstances again to set the stage for an example.


At the market close on March 1, the May Comex silver future was priced at $34.780 per ounce, giving those who bought in mid-2010 a profit of around $80,000. Although economic and market conditions seem generally bullish, there's always the risk of a price pullback in the two months before the future comes due for delivery, and high option premiums make a traditional "insurance" hedge using put options prohibitively expensive - especially since you'd have to give back $10,000 to $12,000 in profits before it even provided any protection.


However, unlike gold, which is driven largely by investor emotions and can thus make really big moves in a short period of time, silver has some restraining factors that make a huge short-term drop unlikely.


Although it hasn't been used in U.S. coins since 1965, silver is still viewed as an attractive investment - especially among those who can't afford gold - and it's in high demand as an industrial commodity, being utilized in jewelry-making, photographic processes and the manufacture of various electronics products. It's also much more difficult to recycle than gold, impacting the supply side and providing a further prop for prices.


As a result, you think it's unlikely a short-term silver correction would cover more than $2 to $3 an ounce - and you also feel that, given the strong advance already, any price gains between now and May would be similarly limited.


So, you decide to position a three-legged option hedge that will protect against a drop of that size while still allowing you to profit should prices move modestly higher before May. Here's what you'd do, using the futures and options prices quoted at the market close on March 1:



  • Hold your May Comex silver futures contract, currently priced at $34.780 per ounce, making it worth $173,900.


  • Buy a May silver put option with an at-the-money strike price of $34.50, which was priced at $1.953 per ounce, meaning it would cost a total of $9,765. (Note: For simplicity's sake, we're ignoring commissions - but they shouldn't run more than $15 per option at the most.)


  • Offset part of your cost for the $34.50 put by selling an out-of-the-money May $32.00 put option, which was priced at $0.905, or $4,525 for the full contract. There would be no margin requirement for the sale of this option since it would be "covered" by your long $34.50 put with its higher strike price.


  • Offset nearly all of the rest of the cost of the $34.50 put by selling an out-of-the-money May $37.00 call option, which was priced at $0.986, or $4,930 for the full contract. Again, there would be no margin requirement for this sale since the short call option would be "covered" by the long futures contract.


The end result is a three-pronged option hedge - positioned at a net cost of just $310 ($9,765 - $4,525 - $4,930 = $310) - that would have the following characteristics:



  • Your maximum loss on any downward move in the May silver futures price would be absolutely limited to $1,710 - until the price dropped below the $32.00 strike price of the put you sold. After that, the loss would mount at the same pace as the loss on the futures contract, though your net overall loss would always be $12,190 less than the loss on the future alone, regardless of how far prices fell.


  • You would add to your profits on any upward move in the May silver futures price - though your profit would be $310 less than on the future alone, reflecting the net cost of the hedge.


  • You would reach a maximum additional profit of $10,790 once the futures price went above the $37.00 strike price of the call option you sold. After that, you would lose out on any additional profit because losses on the short call you sold would offset gains on your long futures contract.



In summary, your hedge would cost $310, give you a maximum additional profit of $10,790 at any futures price above $37.00 an ounce, and limit your loss to just $1,710 so long as the futures price didn't go below $32.00 an ounce.


For a look at the potential outcomes of this hedge at various silver prices - both higher and lower - check out the accompanying table. (Note: The top line shows the opening values of the hedge and the results shown assume the positions are held until the options expire.)






Be aware, however, that you are under no obligation to hold the initial hedge until expiration. If prices move substantially in either direction, you can "roll" the options to higher (or lower) strike-price levels, thus adjusting the profit/loss parameters of the hedge.


Should late April arrive and you think silver is still headed higher, you can also roll your entire position to a futures delivery month later in the year - say July, September or December - positioning a new options hedge with the appropriate strike prices at the time. (Note: The expiration dates for the July, September and December silver options are June 27, August 25 and November 22, respectively.)


If you've made your silver investment using mining stocks, the same triple-pronged hedge will work with them if they have listed options, though very few pure-play silver stocks are traded on U.S. exchanges. In addition, a simple put-purchase hedge may prove cheaper and easier to implement with an individual stock than with the much higher-valued futures contracts.


Fund investors also can use either strategy to hedge their holdings in the five U.S.-listed, silver-oriented exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on which options are traded - two examples being the iShares Silver Trust Fund (NYSE: SLV) and the PowerShares DB Silver Fund (NYSE: DBS).


Be aware, however, that two of the funds - the ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (NYSE: AGQ) and the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (NYSE: ZSL) - use leverage to produce price moves double the size of spot silver changes, so the hedging effects will need to be adjusted.


(Note: ZSL is also an "inverse" fund, meaning its share prices rise when silver prices fall. As such, its shares can actually be purchased to hedge against declines in silver prices - but that's another story entirely.)


News and Related Story :














]]>

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/tips-for-hedging-silver/feed/
1

-

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/hidden-inflation-why-prices-are-rising-faster-than-you-think/
http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/hidden-inflation-why-prices-are-rising-faster-than-you-think/#comments
Thu, 17 Mar 2011 10:00:26 +0000
Guest Editorial
-
-

-
-

http://moneymorning.com/?p=40278
-
- <>Money Morning Executive Editor William Patalon III sat down with Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald for a question-and-answer session on the topic.


For three inflation-fighting investments, please read on....

]]>

-
- <





Rising prices are hitting U.S. consumers a lot harder than the U.S. Federal Reserve - or the U.S. government - would have us believe. The government-issued consumer price index (CPI) for January showed that "core inflation" - which includes prices for all items except food and energy - was up only 1% from the same month the year before.


By excluding food and energy prices, as volatile as they may be, the CPI fails to convey the pain that rising prices are inflicting on American households. Indeed, some economists have claimed that the true rate of inflation is closer to 8% or 9%.


To get a true picture of the current inflation situation - and to understand its impact and potential dangers (as well as several investment opportunities) - Money Morning Executive Editor William Patalon III sat down with Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald for a question-and-answer session on the topic.














  • About the Author

  • Syndicate













Related Stories




  • Why Japan is a "Buy"






  • Gold Will Continue to Shine Amid Market Uncertainty












Related Reports




  • You Can Give Up Your Paycheck, Too…






  • U.S. Weapon Sales to the Middle East: Will Egypt End the "Obama Arms Bazaar?"










Latest Comment

Jeff, The CPI uses a rental equivalent to calculate housing costs so real estate…

















William Patalon (Q): Keith, we talk a lot about "hidden inflation." Is inflation a problem right now? If so, how bad is it? The CPI for January said 1%. Given what we see in the marketplace, it sure looks like a case of hidden inflation. What's the real rate of inflation right now, and is it at its peak, or are prices going to continue to escalate? What do all the statistics in this accompanying chart (see accompanying info-graphic) say to you?


Keith Fitz-Gerald: Short version? The CPI is a joke. Every American knows that in reality it's far higher than that based on what they feel in their wallets every day. Even my 8-year-old son, Kazuhiko, was asking me yesterday why the Lego set he's been saving for is now $33 instead of the $22 he initially spotted a few months ago.


My research suggests inflation is really running between 9% and 12%, which is more commensurate with what we all feel in our wallets every day. As for whether or not inflation has actually peaked, that's a tough call best left to those who deal in "official" numbers - and believe me when I tell you that I'm saying that with all the sarcasm I can muster.


My view is that inflation is very real and it's already here - despite what those in Washington continue to believe ... either because their data is so heavily manipulated or because of their own deliberate ignorance. Using history as my guide, I also believe it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.


Q: What are the big inflationary catalysts right now? And what's driving them?


Fitz-Gerald: I think there are a few, but the single-most-important contributory factor is the trillions of dollars central bankers around the world have pumped into the financial system since the crisis began in late 2007. Never mind that the crisis was caused by too much money to begin with; the central bankers have embarked on a course that ultimately risks destroying the very wealth they are trying to preserve.





Granted, 99% of Americans won't see or believe that because the markets have rebounded significantly as part of the reflation process. But they will definitely feel it.


The only reason we've been able to stave off complete inflationary disaster so far is that we've exported it to places like China, India and Brazil as part of our monetary policy, in exchange for the cheap goods we've come to depend on. However, that's coming to an end as those economies grow and begin to struggle with inflationary pressures of their own.


Eventually, inflation will come full circle and when there is no place else for us to export it, there's going to be hell to pay.


Q: How about the Middle East violence and uncertainty? How is that contributing to this?


Fitz-Gerald: Inflation was already well under way before the powder keg there exploded, so this is not as much a primary inflation driver as most people think. That's not to dismiss it, because there is a direct relationship between scarcity and higher prices especially at the consumer level.


The key is time - and by that I mean time as in how fast prices climb and how long they stay at elevated levels.


Most companies are prepared to absorb short-term volatility. But longer-term, there is no doubt they'll pass along to consumers (you and me) the higher fuel and petroleum costs that are part of their manufacturing processes. Many, like airline and transportation companies, are already doing so. So are food suppliers and materials makers, for example.


I've noticed, for example, a dramatic price rise in what it takes for me to get home to Japan, or anywhere in the Pacific Rim this spring. My breakfast costs 60% more now than it did three years ago and my wife makes no bones about mentioning by just how much the cost of salmon has risen at our local Costco (Nasdaq: COST). Many readers have probably noticed similar things in their own lives.


But, getting back to the Middle East ... the risk there is that the unrest that's right now confined to a couple of countries spreads to the greater region ... where we're talking about 60% of the world's oil supply being potentially at risk. I've diligently prepared our Money Morning and Money Map Report readers for this over the past 12 months and we've already profited significantly from our actions. But - and I can't say this strongly enough - the game is just getting started.


Q: What's the end-game here? By that I mean, what's the potential fallout? Could it stall the recovery? With unemployment still up in the 9% neighborhood, are we in danger of experiencing a 1970s-style period of "stagflation?" If that occurs, what's the outcome you see there?


Fitz-Gerald: I don't think the end game is as clear-cut as many people would like to believe.


On one hand, the laws of money are immutable, so we will have to pay the piper, but let's not forget we have virtually the entire G-20's banking apparatus playing against that possibility. They're obviously well-intentioned. But it's all theory. T hey are complete economic morons when it comes to real money.


That's a strong statement, so let me give you an example. New York Fed President William Dudley recently told business leaders that inflation was not a big deal, especially food inflation. He noted that people forget that even as food prices are rising, other prices are falling and mentioned the new Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPad 2 as an example ... which elicited guffaws from much of his audience - and downright angered the rest who challenged him by asking how long it's been since he actually went shopping.


Dudley then went on to say that "while rising prices are giving some of you [audience members] headaches, they are not likely to lead to a sustained rise in inflation to levels inconsistent with our dual mandate."


I'm not sure these guys are on the same planet as the rest of us.


By removing the freedom to fail and, instead, insisting on bailout after bailout, our leaders are propping up zombie financial institutions that will ultimately come back to haunt us. History shows unequivocally that we cannot live on "free" money forever. And it's worth noting at the risk of sounding like a broken record that no nation in recorded history has ever bailed itself out by debasing its currency on anything other than a short period of time. That's never happened - and it's not likely to.


Q: It seems to me that the U.S. Federal Reserve, which contributed to this escalation in prices with its "QE" policies, is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. The longer it maintains current policies and keeps rates at historic lows, the worse price escalation will get. But if it turns off the spigot, it risks shutting off the recovery, too. Is that how you see it?


Fitz-Gerald: I see it that way, too. By keeping rates so low for so long, the Fed is not only risking inflation, but the catastrophic collision of entitlements - like Medicare and Medicaid - to the tens of trillions related to everything from mortgage debt to personal credit cards.


I think it's a financial deathtrap, for lack of a better term. What "Team Bernanke" is doing is locking down the short end of the yield curve while leaving longer-term risks to the markets in an effort to revive consumption, inventory build-out, and other short-term "stimulus" that will - at least according to theory, anyway - translate into sustainable growth.


The problem with this is twofold. First, as long as the U.S. is in the driver's seat, Bernanke can get away with it. But we now have nations like China calling their own shots [that are] increasingly unwilling to submit to Washington's policy missives. Second, "stimulus" spending - as Washington has defined it - doesn't work.



If it did, our economy would be screaming along at 8%, or more. Instead we're like a 1970s Pinto limping along on three cylinders and risking an explosion if we get rear-ended.


In financial terms, the rest of the world is losing faith as reflected in the premiums they're now attaching to the debt they purchase. And that makes sense for the following four reasons:



  1. The Fed missed this crisis-in-formation, and even in late 2007 insisted that everything was hunky-dory. My favorite was Bernanke who fabulously stated that the risks were "contained." And we can see how accurate a call that proved to be. So if you're tempted to put your faith in Team Bernanke, ask yourself this: Given this earlier miscue, why would we believe the Fed will be able to spot the turning point when everything is "fine" and back off the quantitative easing accordingly, which is one of the central bank's key arguments for taking the actions that it has taken?




  1. Our financial markets have gotten hooked on super-low interest rates in much the same way someone gets hooked on drugs. Just think about what happens when you take away the narcotics ... history suggests we'll see the same "withdrawal" in the financial markets when cheap money gets taken away. From a political standpoint, this is a real time bomb: There will be untold pressures to make sure things are really recovering before the Fed raises interest rates. Of course, what this means in practical terms is that the Fed will keep rates too low for too long - and make too much money available - until it is "sure" we're on our way. Many market-watchers, analysts and traders - myself included - believe this will inflate another financial "bubble." Truth be told, I think the central bankers have already done that.



  1. An increase in interest rates will be the financial equivalent of a self-inflicted wound. It will dramatically increase our refinancing costs as borrowing costs go up. In very real terms, this will mean that banks have to potentially pay more on their deposits than they make from their investments as rates rise. Bear in mind that the Fed actually needs low rates to pay for all the debt it has pumped into the financial system. In that sense, rising rates will be like the adjustable mortgage from hell as the federal government struggles - and has to make tough choices - in an effort to service this debt.




  1. And finally, don't forget that t he Fed has been buying trash as part of the bailout process - mortgage-backed securities, swaps, worthless bonds and other unconventional debt conjured up by investment banks - from Wall Street and from other parts of our economy. And while our central bankers may believe that they will be able to easily sell these assets "when the time comes," that clearly won't be the case. Think about it. Those assets will be worth less because a.) their value moves opposite interest rates, meaning any increase in rates will drive down their value, and b.) these assets were junk to start with. The banks that offloaded it to Uncle Sam are all too glad to be rid of it and I can't think of any reason why they'd take it back.


Folks often refer to Hollywood as "La La Land." I submit t hose folks have never been to Washington.


Q: I've asked you this type of question before, and you always seem to have a great response. So I'm going to pose it again. If President Barack Obama and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hired you to help the U.S. government arrest this rise in costs, what advice would you provide? What strategy would you employ?


Fitz-Gerald: I think the path here is very simple. But it won't be popular. And it won't be painless. I would tell the administration to:



  1. End the bailouts and stop printing money. You cannot suspend free-market forces and still have the economy function. If a company is going to fail, let it fail.

  2. Outlaw "non-deliverable" credit-default swaps to remove the speculative component from the debt market. By doing this, we will shift the focus of the economic recovery from Wall Street back to Main Street - where it belongs.

  3. Start to raise interest rates immediately - before the market does it for you. If you wait for that to happen, you'll not only lose control of your domestic destiny, you'll lose what little global respect this economy still commands.

  4. Partially tie our currency to oil and commodities - a move that's important because it will remove the uncertainty about what the U.S. dollar is actually "worth."

  5. Freeze the budget and allow private sector growth to compensate. Quit trying to "help" us and get out of the way.

  6. Simplify the tax code and flatten it out so that everyone contributes equally. The U.S. tax code is 8 million lines long ... need I say more?

  7. Make it easier to start a business. Give people a reason to put their money to work and an environment that makes hiring people cost effective and not punitive.

  8. Address Social Security - privatize it if you have to - and Medicare while you're at it.

  9. And, finally, restructure the system in a way that encourages ownership and equity, instead of the current one that encourages people ... and companies ... to borrow money at seemingly ever-increasing levels. It's time to acknowledge reality.



Q: Lastly, given what you see for the markets, could you give investors a couple of ideas as to how they should invest - both to protect themselves and, even better, to profit?


Fitz-Gerald: You bet. In my talks around the world, I like to remind investors of an important point - it's kind of a mantra of mine: Chaos is actually opportunity in disguise. Washington is creating chaos - but from that we'll see many wealth-building opportunities arise.


For investors, the key thing to do in the years to come is to make investment choices that can weather the storm, and profit from the opportunities that emerge. Here are some very sound choices for turbulent times:



  • Altria Group Inc (NYSE: MO), recent price: $24.43: Altria is a giant cigarette producer with a 6.23% yield that's a smart choice in rough markets. You may not like smoking any more than I do, but t he firm's beta is a very low 0.47, which means the stock is slightly less than half as volatile as the broader markets. Operating margin is a healthy 39%.




  • Ecopetrol SA (NYSE ADR: EC), recent price: $39.70: Ecopetrol is a vertically integrated oil company that's based in Colombia. That makes it a play on Latin America's robust growth - with a nice 2.5% dividend, to boot. This stock has a beta of 1.01 - which means it's about as volatile as the overall markets. However, I'm willing to overlook that volatility, since the company's five-year Price/Earnings/Growth Rate (PEG) ratio is 0.53 which suggests there is still good value at a fair price.



  • iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (AMEX: TIP), recent price: $110.09: This exchange-traded fund (ETF) invests exclusively in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). W hen inflation really blooms, so, too, will its share price. The yield is still 2.4%, which is not much in the scheme of things but given its ability to help hedge off rising prices, I'll take it.






[Editor's Note: Earthquakes and nuclear meltdowns in Japan, soaring food-and-energy prices, a numbing federal debt load and savings-account rates that make your mattress an alluring place to stuff your money ... it's enough to make the typical investor surrender.



Not so fast.



There is a way for you to double your money in the next 12 months - and you don't have to hire a Swiss banker to do it. All you need is the right blend of high-yielding investments. You can find out the details by clicking here. Or you can sign up for The Money Map Report, which each month delivers the most pressing profit opportunities available.]

News and Related Story :









]]>

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/hidden-inflation-why-prices-are-rising-faster-than-you-think/feed/
10

-

<>http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/video-streaming-giant-netflix-downloads-bold-strategy-for-growth/
http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/video-streaming-giant-netflix-downloads-bold-strategy-for-growth/#comments
Thu, 17 Mar 2011 10:00:13 +0000
David Zeiler
-
-

-
-

-
-

http://moneymorning.com/?p=40239
-
-

-
- <





Already dominant in video streaming, Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) is determined to drive its business into fresh territory. The company plans to acquire its own content with a deal for the U.S. rights to a television series, and will expand its reach to new countries in 2012.


Netflix has enjoyed extraordinary success over the past year, having increased its subscriber base by 63% to 20.01 million in 2010, from 9.39 million in 2009. It delivered stunning fourth quarter results by beating consensus estimates by 16 cents a share.


Yet, Netflix faces serious challenges from Internet service providers (ISPs) over its traffic volume - one study by networking company Sandvine put its portion of evening Internet usage at 20% -- and from wary content providers who may want a bigger share of the company's profits.














  • About the Author

  • Syndicate













Related Stories





  • Net Neutrality Tested by Comcast-Level 3 Netflix Dispute





  • Brick-and-Mortar Retailers Moving Business Online as Foot Traffic Declines












Related Reports




  • You Can Give Up Your Paycheck, Too…





  • U.S. Weapon Sales to the Middle East: Will Egypt End the "Obama Arms Bazaar?"











Latest Comment

its good to hear about expanding their sevices as of now im enjoying netflix thr…

















"No one can deny that Netflix has become a huge player in the industry," Deana Myers, a research analyst at the investment firm SNL Kagan told the Washington Post. "But there are big questions surrounding the company, and they have big obstacles ahead."


In a maneuver apparently aimed at addressing potential content issues, Netflix is said to be in the midst of consummating a deal for a TV series.


According to a report yesterday (Wednesday) in Deadline Hollywood, Netflix has outbid other major cable networks for the rights to Media Rights Capital's drama seriesHouse of Cards starring Kevin Spacey. The 26-episode, two-year commitment could cost Netflix as much as $100 million, though negotiations are not yet complete.


This striking move raises speculation that Netflix may be planning to acquire an assortment of exclusive content that it could use, much as HBO does, to lure and retain subscribers.


Of course, having its own shows could also be a defensive move as Netflix renegotiates deals with the movie studios and TV networks that supply most of the content it currently offers.


For now, streaming others' content is the company's primary modus operandi. Netflix absolutely rules movie streaming over the Internet. No competitor comes close to matching its low $8 per month fee for all-you-can-stream content. Most charge anywhere from 99 cents to $9.99 to watch a TV show or movie.


NPD Group released a study Tuesday showing Netflix with 61% of movies downloaded or streamed in the first two months of the year. Comcast was a distant second with 8%, and the rest of the field - DirecTV (Nasdaq: DTV), Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC) and Apple Inc.'s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iTunes - tied at 4%.


That dominance, combined with its rapidly growing subscriber base, explains the excitement over the stock - it's up more than 200% in the past year. But to maintain the sort of subscriber growth needed to support its somewhat lofty stock price (it closed at $215 a share yesterday, with a Price/Earnings ratio of 75.59), Netflix knows it needs to pursue some bold strategies.


It's already reached over the border to Canada, launching its service there last year. Netflix plans to launch in another country this year, probably the United Kingdom. If all goes well, the company says, "we will continue to expand and invest aggressively in 2012 around the globe."


Stock analysis company Trefis, in a Monday report, said the stock price of Netflix will depend very heavily on how well this strategy succeeds, though it expressed "doubts" based on the smaller size of streaming markets like Canada and the less robust network capacity in larger nations such as China and India.


However, if Pacific Crest Securities analyst Andy Hargreaves is right, Netflix may have an answer for that.


"We believe that, on top of its existing momentum, the company is working with Facebook to launch deeper integration of Netflix into the Facebook platform," Hargreaves wrote in a report last week. "The first stages of these efforts are likely to launch within the next few months, and we believe they could drive incremental subscriber growth domestically while helping to accelerate Netflix's international expansion."



Assuming Netflix can keep its subscriber base growing, the biggest threat to its profitability would come from ISPs such as Comcast, which want Netflix to pay more because of the high volume of data it transmits into their networks.


In a December decision, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) essentially sided with Netflix over the issue of "net neutrality," but the decision was ambiguous enough to leave Netflix concerned the ISPs may find a loophole.


Comcast also has a limit, albeit a very high one, on how much a customer can download, which is legal under FCC rules. AT&T (NYSE: T) has announced it will impose a similar rule on its customers starting May 1.


Netflix worries that such limits may affect its own customers, as streaming uses large amounts of bandwidth.


News and Related Story









Tags:



]]>

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/video-streaming-giant-netflix-downloads-bold-strategy-for-growth/feed/
1

-

<>http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/latin-america-looks-to-strengthen-u.s.-trade-relations-and-step-back-from-china/
http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/latin-america-looks-to-strengthen-u.s.-trade-relations-and-step-back-from-china/#comments
Thu, 17 Mar 2011 10:00:11 +0000
Kerri Shannon
-
-

-
-

-
-

http://moneymorning.com/?p=40226
-
- <>

-
- <





The United States has long referred to Latin America as its "backyard", and held a strong economic influence on its southern neighbors.



But someone else is moving in.


China's trade with Latin American countries has surged over the past few years, weakening the region's economic relationship with the United States. Now some of those nations - especially Brazil - want to strengthen U.S. ties to reduce their dependence on the world's second-largest economy.














  • About the Author

  • Syndicate













Related Stories




  • China's Five-Year Economic Plan Calls For Slower Growth






  • Global Investing Strategies: A "Lightning-Round" Look at U.S. Stocks, the Dollar, Inflation and China












Related Reports





  • You Can Give Up Your Paycheck, Too…





  • U.S. Weapon Sales to the Middle East: Will Egypt End the "Obama Arms Bazaar?"










Latest Comment

There needs to be more free trade alliances allowed for the U.S. in Latin Americ…

















"In the past, we feared the predominance of the U.S.; now it's the opposite," former Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso said in an interview last month. "It's better for us for the Americans not to retreat too much to keep the balance."


U.S. President Barack Obama will head to South America on March 18 to discuss strengthening U.S. trade relations with the region. Stops on his five-day visit include Brazil, Chile and El Salvador. President Obama wants to plan a new future with Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and Chilean President Sebastian Pinera before losing key economic opportunities to other countries.


"We can no longer assume we are the only game in town," Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas, told Bloomberg News. Competitors are "knocking on the door. We cannot ignore the Western Hemisphere, nor can we take it for granted, because other people are moving in very quickly and very effectively."


China overtook the United States as Brazil's biggest trading partner in 2009. The United States imported $27 billion from Brazil in 2008, compared to China's $16 billion, according to the Inter-American Development Bank. However, raw material demand for Asia's biggest emerging economy drove imports to $20 billion in 2009 while U.S. imports fell to $16 billion.


China's foreign direct investment (FDI) in Brazil surged in 2010. Brazil's FDI inflows from China totaled about $17 billion last year, up from less than $300 million in 2009, according to Brazilian think tank Sobeet.


China became Chile's leading export market in 2007. The Asian powerhouse increased imports from mining, oil and agricultural industries over the past few years to supply its domestic manufacturing.


Argentina also has benefited from China's new Latin American presence. Last year, it agreed to a $10 billion package with the China Development Bank to renovate its aging railway system.


"The U.S. has such a long way to go to catch up with China that anything it can do will be useful," Ronald Scheman, former director general of the Inter-American Agency for Cooperation and Development, told Bloomberg. "But the ballgame has changed. The U.S. has to find a new role and restructure its partnership with Latin America."


The region's energy and infrastructure development presents a key selling opportunity for U.S. goods. Central and South America's gross domestic product grew 6% in 2010 and is expected to grow 4% in 2011. And Brazil is prepared to spend $200 billion for the upcoming 2014 soccer World Cup tournament and 2016 summer Olympics.


President Obama hopes his visit will improve rocky U.S. trade relations with Brazil. Arguments over U.S. farm subsidies, an import tariff on Brazilian ethanol and Brazilian duties on consumer goods have created tension for years.


President Obama also wants to silence some Latin American critics that claim the United States is too distracted and financially troubled to offer much to the region.


"The Chinese are a kick in the pants for the United States to articulate a little bit more of a serious relationship with the region," Kevin Gallagher, an international relations professor at Boston University and co-author of a book on China's presence in Latin America, told Reuters.


Currency War Hits Home



The increase in Chinese imports to Brazil is due to Brazil's strengthening currency and China's yuan, which many consider undervalued.


Currency tensions between the countries heightened in September when Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said a global currency war was undermining Brazil's competitiveness.


Mantega has said he supports a revaluation of the yuan, which the United States has been advocating for years. The currency's value makes for cheap Chinese imports, which are flooding into Brazil and hurting local manufacturers.


Even many of the costumes at Brazil's annual Carnival celebration this year were made from fabric imported from China.


"When the real got strong, or, rather, the dollar weakened, the carnival industry reacted like any other," costume shop owner Claudia Sakuraba told The Financial Times. "Of course we imported more."


Sakuraba started her business in 2005 when the Brazilian real was 2.5 to the U.S. dollar. She imported about 30% of the fabrics. But now the real is trading around 1.67 per dollar and her imports jumped to 60%.


The real appreciated about 50% from 2006 to 2010, and domestic manufacturing can't compete with Chinese goods.


"When you're at 20 to 30-year highs in your currency, that usually spells problems for your manufacturing base," Gray Newman, an economist at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), told The FT.


Brazilian manufacturers lost an estimated 70,000 jobs and $10 billion in income last year, according to Sao Paulo Industrial Federation (Fiesp). Some companies have moved production to China or India for a lower cost base.


Brazil increased import tariffs on toys and took anti-dumping actions on Chinese products.


Finance Minister Mantega has called for international currency system reform to help countries' balance trade and capital flows. He defended Brazil's imposition of capital controls earlier this year.


"We would prefer to have capital freedom and a freely floating exchange rate system," Mantega told The FT. "We are only using these limits because others are using their exchange rates as a weapon for trade."


News and Related Story :




















Tags: , ,



]]>

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/17/latin-america-looks-to-strengthen-u.s.-trade-relations-and-step-back-from-china/feed/
1

-

<>http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/16/debt-trillions-could-japan-go-bust/
http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/16/debt-trillions-could-japan-go-bust/#comments
Wed, 16 Mar 2011 17:24:05 +0000
Guest Editorial
-
-

-
-

http://moneymorning.com/?p=40218
-
-

-
- <

Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald joins FoxBusiness' "Varney & Co." to answer the newest economic question of the day: Is Japan like Greece? Check out his answer, plus his take on how Japan's disaster will affect the country's debt.






]]>

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/16/debt-trillions-could-japan-go-bust/feed/
0



-
Posted by at No comments:
Labels:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)